Retail inflation resurges to 7%.

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retail inflation

News Highlight

India’s retail inflation resurged to 7% in August from 6.71% in July. It is fueled by an uptick in food prices paid by consumers.

Key Takeaway

  • This is the eighth successive month that retail inflation has stayed above the central bank’s (RBI) upper tolerance threshold of 6% inflation for the economy.
  • Rural inflation, which was at 6.8% in July, saw a sharper rise than urban inflation in August, rising to 7.15%. 
  • Urban consumers’ inflation rate moved up from 6.49% in July to 6.72%.

What is inflation?

  • Inflation is the general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy.

Factors causing inflation

  • Demand push factors:
    • It is caused by high demand and low production or supply of multiple commodities, creating a demand-supply gap, which leads to a hike in prices due to increased consumption.
    • For example, when the government lowers taxes, it also drives demand.
  • Cost Pull factors:
    • It is caused by a shortage of factors of production like labour, land, capital, etc., and also due to artificial scarcity created due to hoarding.
    • For example, if low-paid workers in a factory form a union and demand higher wages.

Types of Inflation

  • Creeping Inflation:
    • When the rise in prices is very slow (less than 3% per annum), like that of a snail or creeper, it is called “creeping inflation.”
  • Walking inflation:
    • When prices rise moderately, and the annual inflation rate is a single digit (3% – 10%), it is called “walking or trotting inflation.”
  • Running Inflation:
    • When prices rise rapidly, like the running of a horse at a rate of speed of 10% – 20% per annum, it is called “running inflation.” 
  • Galloping Inflation:
    • Inflation in the double or triple-digit range of 20, 100, or 200 per cent a year is called galloping inflation.

Indicators used to measure inflation in India.

  • The Wholesale Price Index (WPI):
    • It measures the changes in the prices of goods sold and traded in bulk by wholesale businesses to other businesses.
    • Published by the Office of Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI):
    • It is the measure of changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services bought by households.
    • It is released by the National Statistical Office (NSO).

Positive impacts of inflation

  • Increasing Profits for Producers:
    • In most cases, inflation benefits the producers of goods. They make more money because they can sell their products at higher prices.
  • Shareholders’ income increases:
    • If a company’s profits increase due to inflation, it can pay dividends to its shareholders. 
    • As a result, shareholders’ dividend income may increase during inflationary periods.
  • Borrowers’ Advantages:
    • Inflation reduces the purchasing power of money. As a result, if the borrower pays an interest rate lower than the inflation rate, he benefits from the process. 
    • This is due to the fact that the real value of the money returned by the borrower is less than the value of the money borrowed.
  • The government’s tax revenue improves:
    • As the cost of goods and services rises, people should pay more in indirect taxes.
    • Tax revenue increases for the government, but the real value does not keep pace with the current inflation rate due to a lag in tax collection.

Negative impacts of inflation

  • Real-Income falls for groups with fixed income:
    • This means that people on fixed incomes, such as salaried workers, pensioners, and the like, will see a drop in real income. 
    • To put it another way, their purchasing power will be reduced.
  • Income distribution inequality is rising:
    • Profits for business owners and entrepreneurs rise due to inflation.
    • People in fixed-income groups, however, see a decrease in their real income.
    • As a result, income inequality is more pronounced during this time period.
  • The rupee may depreciate:
    • Due to less purchasing power parity, the demand for the dollar increases, depreciating the Indian rupee.
    • This benefits the exporters and will burden the importers.
  • Lenders Will Sustain Losses:
    • As mentioned before, borrowers benefit from inflation when it positively impacts them.
    • As a result, lenders risk losing money during such times.
    • This is because they receive a sum with less purchasing power than the amount loaned.

Inflation targeting 

  • It is a central bank (RBI) policy that focuses on altering monetary policy to attain a set annual inflation rate.
  • In India, the Monetary Policy Framework Agreement agreed between the RBI and the government in 2015 established inflation targeting.
  • The RBI is mandated to maintain a rate of inflation of 4% with a 2-percentage-point deviation, i.e., inflation must be kept between 2% and 6%.
  • If consumer inflation is more than 6% or less than 2% for three consecutive quarters beginning in the 2015/16 fiscal year, the central bank will be considered to have missed its objective.

Content Source: The Hindu

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