News Highlight
Saudi Arabia’s quest for strategic autonomy.
Key Takeaway
- Saudi Arabia, which had pursued an aggressive foreign strategy in recent years to strengthen its influence in West Asia while undermining Iran, its hated adversary, has now reversed course.
- It is reaching out to old adversaries, holding discussions with new adversaries, and attempting to strike a balance amongst big powers while reforming its domestic economy.
- If Saudi Arabia continues to assert its foreign policy autonomy and promote regional stability through diplomacy.
- It might have major consequences for West Asia.
- For many years, the kingdom’s animosity towards Iran was the primary motivator of Saudi foreign policy.
- Saudi Arabia, for example, joined hands with its Gulf allies in Syria, Iran’s lone state partner in West Asia.
- In addition, Turkey and the West are funding and arming the opposition to President Bashar al-Assad.
- Saudi Arabia, which had pursued an aggressive foreign strategy in recent years to strengthen its influence in West Asia while undermining Iran, its hated adversary, has now reversed course.
- It is reaching out to old adversaries, holding discussions with new adversaries, and attempting to strike a balance amongst big powers while reforming its domestic economy.
- If Saudi Arabia continues to assert its foreign policy autonomy and promote regional stability through diplomacy.
- It might have major consequences for West Asia.
- For many years, the kingdom’s animosity towards Iran was the primary motivator of Saudi foreign policy.
- Saudi Arabia, for example, joined hands with its Gulf allies in Syria, Iran’s lone state partner in West Asia.
- In addition, Turkey and the West are funding and arming the opposition to President Bashar al-Assad.
Saudi’s Foreign Policy
- Recent changes
- The normalisation of relations with Iran.
- Saudi Arabia has agreed to become a conversation partner of the SCO.
- According to various sources, Russia mediates talks between Saudi Arabia and Syria.
- A Saudi-Omani delegation has arrived in Yemen to negotiate a durable cease-fire with the Houthis.
- Changing Stance Towards Iran
- Saudi Arabia’s foreign strategy has historically revolved around Iran, resulting in proxy battles throughout the Middle East.
- It has traditionally taken a hostile posture towards Iran.
- However, Saudi Arabia recently announced a pact to normalise diplomatic relations with Iran, mediated by China.
- Strategic rivalry and proxy battles have given way to tactical de-escalation and mutual coexistence with Iran.
- Reason for Change in Policy
- Recent regional bets have either failed or been only partially successful.
- Regional strategies have failed, such as in Syria and Yemen, where Saudi intervention has failed to prevent Iran-backed Houthi insurgents.
- Furthermore, the Houthis’ use of drones and short-range missiles poses a severe security danger to Saudi Arabia.
India’s Relationship with Saudi Arabia
- Oil and Gas
- Saudi Arabia is India’s second-largest crude oil supplier (Iraq is the top provider).
- Saudi Arabia supplies around 18% of India’s crude oil requirements and approximately 22% of its LPG requirements.
- Commercial Relations
- Saudi Arabia is India’s fourth major economic partner and a vital energy source, delivering over 18% of the country’s crude oil requirements.
- Saudi Arabia also supplies a substantial amount of LPG to India.
- In fiscal year 22, bilateral trade totalled US$29.28 billion.
- Imports from Saudi Arabia totalled US$22.65 billion, while exports to Saudi Arabia totalled US$6.63 billion.
- Cultural Links
- Another important aspect of India-Saudi Arabia relations is the Haj pilgrimage.
- India was a ‘Guest of Honour‘ at the 32nd edition of the renowned Saudi National Festival of Heritage and Culture in 2018.
- Naval exercise
- The Al-Mohed Al-Hindi Exercise, the first-ever naval joint drill between India and Saudi Arabia, began in 2021.
How will Saudi’s Changing Policy Affect the Region?
- Saudi Arabia’s discussions with Syria and the Houthis are part of a larger picture of Saudi-Iran reconciliation.
- Ending the Yemen war through a deal with the Houthis would provide Saudi Arabia with a more stable border and allow Iran to maintain influence in Saudi Arabia’s backyard.
- These deals may bring some stability to the Gulf, but tensions between Israel and Iran may have an impact.
- Saudi Arabia must also retain autonomy without enraging the US.
- It may not be pleased with Syria’s reintegration into the West Asian mainstream.
Global Implications
- Overview
- May end the long-running Shia-Sunni antagonism in West Asian politics.
- Put an end to proxy wars in Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq.
- As Western influence declines, Chinese influence grows.
- Given none of Russia, China, the United States, or India is signatories to the ICC, this may not matter.
- Adheres to non-alignment, non-confrontation, and non-targeting of other countries.
- For multipolar organisations to become politicised is unacceptable, as evidenced by the current stalemate at the G-20.
Implications to India
- Saudi Arabia is a key player in the Middle East.
- Any significant changes in its foreign policy could have ramifications for India’s relations with other countries in the region.
- It may result in the formation of China-Pakistan-Saudi Arabia.
- India has friendly relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia, contributing to the region’s peace and stability.
- Normalising relations between these two countries could aid India’s attempts to foster regional peace and security.
- However, Chinese mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia may pose difficulties for India because it will help China’s growing influence in the area.
- India must remain watchful in the face of growing Chinese influence in the region and fight to secure its strategic interests in the Middle East.
Conclusion
- Following China-mediated discussions, Saudi Arabia announced a deal to normalise diplomatic relations with Iran.
- Soon after, rumours surfaced that Russia was mediating discussions between Saudi Arabia and Syria.
- This could lead to the latter rejoining the Arab League before the next summit in Saudi Arabia, set for May 2023.
- A Saudi-Omani group recently visited Yemen to negotiate a permanent truce with the Houthi rebels.
- These actions significantly depart from Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman’s policy.
- This is happening at a time when Saudi Arabia is also attempting to strike a balance between the United States, its major armaments supplier, Russia, its OPEC-Plus partner, and China, the region’s new superpower.
Pic Courtesy: Every Pixel
Content Source: The Hindu