News Highlights:
There will be significant changes and challenges in the Indian Ocean and South Asian regions, with tensions between an aggressive China and an emerging India intensifying.
Key takeaway:
- As 2022 ends, the world is embracing a ‘new normal’ where new fault lines are reconfiguring in the Indo-Pacific.
The Indian Ocean and South Asian regions are at the heart of this contestation, considering their geo-political and geo-economic prominence and India’s emergence as a significant power.
China’s widening outreach:
- China’s ambitions:
- China has long tried to mark its influence in Indian Ocean regions and enhance its strategic ambitions, namely, to limit Indian influence, military power, and status and to sustain its energy supply and economic growth.
- China’s debt trap:
- Beijing’s outreach in South Asia increased manifold in the early 2000s with its economic boom.
- It began to further its regional strategic ends through loans, financial incentives, and mega-infrastructure projects.
- This became more institutionalised with the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013.
- These investments enabled Beijing to access the Indian Ocean, promote political and security ties in the region, harbour military vessels and submarines, and take certain islands and ports on the lease ( including the Hambantota port of Sri Lanka).
- Galwan clashes:
- Galwan clashes in 2020 made India think that Beijing is a bigger threat than that Islamabad.
- While the possibility of a two-front war persists, Pakistan’s strategic isolation, economic and political fallout, and border and terror challenges emanating from Afghanistan have minimised the likelihood of its aggression.
Steps by India, the rest of the Quad:
- Re-energised diplomatic efforts:
- After Galwan, New Delhi has re-energised diplomatic efforts in its backyard.
- Maldives:
- In the Maldives, New Delhi is reciprocating President Ibrahim Solih’s ‘India First’ policy with massive economic assistance, grants, and infrastructure projects and cooperating on maritime security.
- Nepal:
- In Nepal, Prime Minister Deuba’s government has attempted to improve Nepal’s overall bilateral relations with India.
- Srilanka:
- In crisis-hit Sri Lanka, India, this year alone, has provided economic and humanitarian assistance and investments worth $4 billion.
- Quad members:
- India’s leading efforts in South Asia and the Indian Ocean have also attracted other Quad members (Japan, Australia, and the United States).
- Close cooperation has ensued among Quad partners to push against China collectively and offer genuine alternatives to the BRI – they have also been assisting Sri Lanka throughout the crisis.
- Japan is also finalising its talks with Sri Lanka on debt restructuring.
- In the Maldives, Australia and the U.S. have committed to opening their embassies and new areas of cooperation.
- In 2020, the U.S. signed a defence and security framework with the Maldives.
- Nepal also ratified the U.S.’s Millennium Challenge Cooperation (Nepal Compact), much to China’s displeasure.
Tensions rising against India:
- The recent success of India and its partners is unlikely to deter China from furthering its presence in the Indian Ocean Region.
- The Chinese surveillance vessel Yuan Wang-5 (it had docked in Sri Lanka in August) re-entered the Indian Ocean coinciding with the test flight of the Agni-series missile.
- Beijing also hosted its first-ever China-Indian Ocean Region Forum to institutionalise its presence in the region and challenge new initiatives such as the Quad and the Colombo Security Conclave.
A balancing act of South Asian countries:
- Balancing competition:
- Beijing leverages its financial and economic might and political influence in South Asia.
- South Asian countries would also hesitate to completely move away from China as they hope to exercise their agency by balancing with China and India
- Essentially making this competition is a ‘new normal’, and this trend will only increase with new players entering the region.
- Economic and political turmoil in the Region:
- With most South Asian countries now facing economic and political turmoil balancing outcome is likely to happen.
- The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have continued to haunt the region.
- Nepal, the Maldives and Bhutan are struggling with depleting forex reserves.
- Bangladesh has reached a bailout agreement worth $4.5 billion with the International Monetary Fund.
- Sri Lanka is yet to chart its way out of the economic crisis.
- Instability in the region:
- Energy shortages, inflation, and negative or slow economic growth are also disrupting day-to-day activities in these countries.
- As 2023 marks an election year for a large part of South Asia, these economic grievances combined with political opportunism will likely fuel more instability in the region.
- Ongoing protests in Bangladesh are a mere indication of such upcoming challenges.
Pic Courtesy: The Hindu
Content Source: The Hindu